Quarterbacks rule the NFL world, and thus they also rule the world of sports betting. The team with the better QB in a matchup usually ends up the favorite, and the best signal-callers in the league typically lead the futures boards for NFL MVP. Naturally, Super Bowl odds tend to be dominated by teams with elite quarterback play, too.

This adage has never been more true than in 2022, with Josh Allen’s Bills, Tom Brady’s Buccaneers, and Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs all among the preseason favorites to win Super Bowl 57. Allen and Mahomes, not coincidentally, lead the MVP odds boards — while Brady holds the NFL record with seven Super Bowl rings on top of his countless passing records. 

The list of favorites and sleepers is bound to change as injuries strike and the season wears on. For now, let’s look at the complete odds board for Super Bowl 57 heading into Week 3, and get the full picture of the favorites, value bets, and long shots to win it all. 

Odds to win Super Bowl 57

All odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Gone are the days of the Brad Johnsons, Trent Dilfers, and Jim McMahons of the world winning NFL championships. Beyond Nick Foles with the Eagles in Super Bowl LII (2018) and Joe Flacco with the Ravens in Super Bowl XLVII (2013), the last two decades have been dominated by elite quarterbacks.

In that span, we’ve seen Brady win his seven rings, Peyton and Eli Manning win two each, and Ben Roethlisberger also win two. Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford each have one Lombardi trophy, all top-tier QBs of upper-echelon offenses. 

Stafford joins Foles, Flacco, Johnson, and Dilfer as the only Super Bowl-winning QBs in the 21st century with little to no chance of being inducted into the Hall of Fame. Their squads relied mostly on their defenses and running games, and as we well know, Stafford and the current reigning-champion Rams rely as heavily on wideout and 2021 Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp as any team in NFL history (Kupp won Super Bowl LVI MVP honors).

Brady’s Bucs broke the AFC and NFC’s Super Bowl stalemate of 27 wins apiece, and the Rams pushed the NFC’s all-time lead to 29-27. Thanks largely to Brady and five-time MVP Peyton Manning, the AFC holds a 13-9 advantage over the NFC over the past 22 Super Bowls. The AFC has also hoisted six of the past 10 Lombardi trophies. 

Heading into Week 15 of the regular season, the Bills are still the betting favorites to win the Super Bowl at +375 odds. Buffalo is riding a four-game winning streak after defeating the Jets 20-12 last week at Highmark Stadium. The Bills will now face Dolphins on Saturday night, who they have a two-game lead over in the AFC East standings. If Buffalo defeats Miami, they will clinch a playoff berth and continue to hold the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoff standings.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs and Eagles still have the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl (+450) after both teams picked up wins over divisional opponents (Broncos and Giants). The Chiefs also have the second-best odds to win the AFC (+220), while the Eagles are the favorites to win the NFC (+165). Kansas City will look to win the AFC West on Sunday with a win over the Texans.

Finally, we saw the 49ers’ Super Bowl odds improve from +1200 to +750 after their blowout win at home over the Buccaneers. San Francisco showed they can win with a rookie quarterback (Brock Purdy) and could be a threat in the postseason, depending on how the rest of the season plays out. The 49ers will try to lock up the NFC West crown with a win over the Seahawks on Thursday night.

Check back each week when we update the Super Bowl odds and review the recent risers, fallers, and emerging best bets of the championship-contending landscape!